Author(s): Janani Vivekananda
2011-10-01

This note explains the importance of using a conflict-sensitive approach to responding to climate change in South Asia. It offers guidelines and emerging principles on how climate change and development policy makers and practitioners can promote peace-positive adaptation actions which can yield the double dividend of building resilience to climate change and conflict. Issues of water, land, energy and food security are highly affected by climate change. At the same time, inappropriate governance of these issues lies at the root of conflicts across the region. The note proposes that engagement in these areas needs to be approached in a comprehensive way which maximises the productive capacity of local communities, while also minimising the risk of instability and conflict.

Author(s): Dennis Taenzler, Lukas Ruettinger, Katherina Ziegenhagen (adelphi); Gopalakrishna Murthy, Academy of Gandhian Studies
2011-10-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity due to climate change may have significant implications for the quality and quantity of water in India. India’s water resources are under increasing pressure from population growth, economic development, industrialisation, urbanisation and inefficient water use. Several internal water disputes already existing in India between states, communities and/or water user groups in the domestic and the industrial sectors may be aggravated. Approaches need to be promoted to reduce the overall amount of future water stress and improve water management capacities. Additionally, joint monitoring, planning of water user groups, and initiatives for education and training on water, climate change and crisis can enable water user groups to recognise crisis potential at an early stage.

Author(s): Lukas Ruettinger and Dennis Taenzler (adelphi); Dr Paddy Musana and Bangirana Narcisio (Peace and Conflict Studies MA Programme, Makerere University)
2011-08-01

Although endowed with abundant renewable water resources, Uganda faces huge challenges in the water sector. Pressure on and competition around water resources are increasing. This can lead to conflict potential, especially if it leads to unequal water access and availability and interacts with other conflict factors such as marginalisation or past conflicts. Pastoralist conflicts in Karamoja and along the cattle corridor, as well as the links between water and land grabbing, exemplify these dynamics. However, water can also be a source of peace and cooperation if managed in an equitable and sustainable way: participatory management of ecosystems, conflict-sensitive water infrastructure development and improvement of conflict management in water management institutions are some examples of how water conflicts can be prevented.

Author(s): Maria Raquel Freire and Licínia Simão Centre for Social Studies, University of Coimbra
2011-07-01

The development of a partnership between the EU and the wider region, the South Caucasus, has raised expectations for peace and stability in the pan-European space, building on the EU’s presence and active policies. By looking at EU early warning and preventive diplomacy in Armenia, this report seeks to highlight challenges to and opportunities for EU policies, instruments and action, assessing the impact of EU engagement in preventive terms and with regard to the goal of promoting security and stability. The report advances policy recommendations regarding areas where there is room for improvement.

Author(s): Peace Studies Group (NEP/CES)
2011-07-01

Based on case studies in Rio de Janeiro, San Salvador, Praia and Bissau, this paper discusses three main challenges facing research and policy making regarding collective urban youth violence. It argues for a shift of focus in research from the analysis of “problematic” youth to how violence impregnates daily lives and becomes normalised through specific local, social and political conditions; argues for a change of focus in the analysis of the violent mobilisation of youth, emphasising the need to address the appeal of symbolic revenues permeating the search for valued social status and possibilities in contexts of adversity and violence; supports an urgent shift at global and national policy levels, affirming that repressive policies have hitherto failed to contain youth violence or improve preventive policy design.

Author(s): Fabricio Brodziak, Ana Lucía García and Luis Gómez Chow
2011-06-01

Due to its social, economic, institutional, and geographical situation, Mexico is highly sensitive to the effects of climate change and other extreme meteorological phenomena. Some experts see the changes in climate as a result of natural climate variability. Others argue Mexico’s environmental situation exemplifies the effects of global warming and climate change and that if these are not countered, Mexico may be susceptible to social conflict as vulnerability amongst different communities and groups increases. The authors propose two models to explain the relationship between climate change and conflict, and the mitigation and adaptation policies needed to face the challenges it poses.

Author(s): Lukas Ruettinger, Antoine Morin, Annabelle Houdret, Dennis Taenzler, Clementine Burnley
2011-06-01

The Water, Crisis, and Climate Change Assessment Framework (WACCAF) is a tool allowing for a practical assessment of existing or future conflict trends arising from increased competition over water access and/or availability between user and/or management groups in the water sector. Competition and insufficient water availability can be caused by natural phenomena such as climate change or by unequal allocation. Taking a look at the root causes of these conflicts, the tool considers crises in the broader context. It is based on the assumption that conflicts over natural resources and the environment are always embedded in a broader setting, where socio-political, environmental and economic factors create potential crisis situations, but also offer entry points for cooperation.

Author(s): Mais Yacoub, International Alert
2011-05-01

This report analyses the EU’s institutional capacity to carry out early warning, early action and conflict prevention in Sri Lanka. It looks critically at the post-war context in Sri Lanka, and the challenges and opportunities presented to the EU in this new chapter of the country’s history. Given the complexities of this post-war context, the report examines how the EU could ensure conflict trends which might lead to future outbreaks of violence are monitored and mitigated through a holistic integration of conflict monitoring and analysis using appropriate post war indicators, resulting in the appropriate early warning and action response.

Author(s): Lucia Montanaro and Julia Schu?nemann
2011-04-30

This paper argues that given the EU’s global ambitions in conflict prevention and peacebuilding, a number of changes are necessary to improve the EU early warning and response system. The reforms of the Lisbon Treaty and the establishment of the EEAS do not go far enough: The scattered strands of the EU early warning system need to be woven together so that the EU can be cost effective and maximise its potential impact. The current system suffers from weaknesses in the production, communication, warning receptivity and disconnects between its early warning and early action. This paper identifies the key constraints to an effective system and suggests ways to overcome them.

Author(s): Pablo Lumerman, Jimena Psathakis and María de los Ángeles Ortiz
2011-04-01

This report addresses how climate change impacts, enhances and creates new socio-environmental conflicts. It argues that a conflict-sensitive approach in the development and implementation of public policies on climate change issues and the promotion of early-warning systems in this field will allow us to deal more constructively with present conflicts and to prevent future ones. It is divided into two sections: the first section analyses the links between climate change impacts and socio-environmental conflicts, and the second includes suggestions on reducing the impacts of climate change, by using a comprehensive, cross-sector and interdisciplinary approach.

Author(s): Pablo Lumerman, Jimena Psathakis y María de los Ángeles Ortiz
2011-04-01

El presente informe aborda la temática de cómo los impactos del cambio climático generan y potencian conflictos socioambientales. En él, se argumenta que la implementación de un enfoque sensible al conflicto para el desarrollo y la implementación de políticas públicas en el abordaje del cambio climático, y la promoción de sistemas de alerta temprana permiten enfrentar conflictos actuales y prevenir los futuros de forma más constructiva. El informe está dividido en dos secciones: la primera, analiza la relación entre los impactos del cambio climático y los conflictos socio ambientales; la segunda, incluye ciertas recomendaciones para la reducción de los impactos del cambio climático a través de un enfoque integral, multisectorial y multidisciplinario.

Author(s): Joost van der Zwan
2011-01-10

This report analyses the EU’s institutional capacity to carry out conflict early warning, early action, and conflict prevention in two of the most conflict-ridden and war-affected countries in the world: Sudan and South Sudan. It analyses the institutional aspects of EU conflict early warning approaches and assesses the extent to which they are applied in-country and in Brussels to inform policies, strategies and programming processes. It provides a number of recommendations on how the EU can overcome challenges and constraints so that it can better link early warning to effective & timely response to prevent conflict and build peace, under the new Lisbon Treaty architecture. The report concludes by noting that the EU needs to identify its peacebuilding niche in a heavily crowded field of actors. If it decides its niche is related to early warning, conflict prevention and peacebuilding, it needs to prove this through sustained political willingness to engage on the crucial conflict issues discussed above and invest heavily in building up its systems, networks, capacity and tools to be able to play a viable role in both Sudan and South Sudan. The key here would be to develop a coherent approach that is fully grounded in an understanding of the realities of the different conflicts, and developing and mobilising the type of complex political engagement and partnerships that are needed to deliver concrete results in terms of improved stability and security for the Sudanese and South Sudanese people.

Author(s): Sébastien Babaud and Natalia Mirimanova
2011-01-01

Beyond being the world’s biggest aid donor, the European Union (EU) has gradually shown its willingness to become a “global actor”. Within the pre-Lisbon arrangements, the European Commission (EC) was in charge of designing and implementing EU development co-operation strategies and programmes. Over the years, it has developed policies and stepped up its capacities to analyse and respond to conflict through a wide range of instruments. Its wide presence on the ground, thanks to the network of EC Delegations around the world, added to the financial weight of its cooperation programmes, provided the EC with the potential to act as an important conflict prevention and crisis response actor. This paper intends to map out the pre-Lisbon EC early warning system and outlines some initial cross-cutting observations on its performance to date.

Author(s): Clingendael Conflict Research Unit
2010-03-31

In the mid-1990s, the atrocities in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia prompted renewed attention to the concept of early warning and underscored the importance of adequate systems to predict, prevent and respond to the eruption of violent conflict. Around that same time, the European Union started to build up its capacity to forecast crisis situations and, where possible and appropriate, take action accordingly. This paper provides an overview of the early warning and conflict prevention bodies and instruments within the Council of the European Union, depicting the state of affairs before the enactment of the Lisbon Treaty. It finds that while the Council made significant steps in building its early warning and conflict prevention architecture, there are still a number of possible gaps and limitations that merit further consideration.

Author(s): Janani Vivekananda, Dan Smith
2009-01-11

This report explores the complexities of responding to climate change in fragile and conflict affected contexts. It highlights the interaction between the impact of climate change and the social and political realities in which people live and stresses that it is this that will determine their capacity to adapt. To be effective, the goal of policy responses must be to address the political dimension of adapting to climate change, and the underlying causes of vulnerability where the state is unable to carry out its core functions. The report sets out five policy objectives and some key observations on getting the institutional structures right in order to achieve this goal. The reports findings urge policy makers to look beyond technical fixes and to address the interlinked political, social and institutional constraints to effective responses.